Five global and five regional scenarios for Europe has been developed by a team of researchers from SLU, University of Stockholm, University of Gothenburg and Chalmers University of Technology under the guidance of Swedish Defence Research Agency.
General morphological analysis has been used to build scenarios. The method has been developed to analyze complex problems where causal relationship between input factors need not be known and in which both quantitative and qualitative factors may be present.
The complete scenarios are presented in the report, Five scenarios for 2050 – Conditions for Agriculture and Land Use described briefly below. Three workshops, in which stakeholders and scientists have participated, have been arranged to identify future challenges and knowledge needs. The scenarios have been the starting point for the discussions at these workshops. The results of the workshops have been a basis for future research Future Agriculture - Livestock, Crop and Land Use. A Strategic Programme for Research.
- An overexploited world
- A world in balance
- Changed balance of power
- The world awakes
- A fragmented world
The following people have been involved in developing scenarios
Prof. Jan Bengtsson, Department of Ecology, SLU.
Dr. Erik Fahlbeck former lecturer at the Department of Economics, SLU, now working at the Ministry of Enterprise, Energy and Communications.
Dr. Fredrik Hedenus, Physical Resource Theory, Chalmers.
Dr. Torbjörn Jansson, Department of Economics, SLU.
Prof. Erik Steen Jensen Agriculture – farming systems, technology and product quality at SLU.
Prof. Helena Lindholm Schulz, School of Global Studies, University of Gothenburg.
Prof. Ulf Magnusson, Department of Clinical Sciences, SLU.
Prof. Lotta Rydhmer, Department of Animal Breeding and Genetics, SLU.
Associate Prof. Katarina Vrede, Future Agriculture, SLU.
Prof. Charles Westin, Centre for Research in International Relations and Ethnic Relations (CEIFO), Stockholm University.
Prof. Ingrid Öborn, Department of Crop Production Ecology, SLU.
First researcher Maria Stenström (project manager), Analyst Benny Jansson and Liselotte Dahlen from the Swedish Defence Research Agency (FOI) were facilitating and leading the process during the development of scenarios.