Portrait of a woman (Carolina Vogs, SLU) looking straight into the camera. In the foreground is a water glass through which the woman is looking.
Photo: Lisa Chröisty, SLU

PFAS Risk Calculator: For simulating and assessing the risk of chemicals in food and drinking water

Page reviewed:  04/10/2025

PFAS: The chemical group that so many are talking about, found in food, drinking water, and accumulated in our bodies. How serious is it really that we are ingesting these chemicals? This is what Carolina Vogs is now investigating - and aiming to developing a program that calculates the risk for us.

Studies show time and again that PFAS is found in the vast majority of people, so most likely in both you and me, says researcher Carolina Vogs from the Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences (SLU).

And the question that naturally follows is: Are the levels of PFAS in our bodies something to worry about? How does it affect our bodies? And what can actually be done about it when these chemicals, albeit in low levels, have already spread to both food and drinking water?

Let's start from the beginning.

What exactly is PFAS?

PFAS, short for “per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances”: A large group of artificial, so-called “synthetic” chemicals created by humans. PFAS do not occur naturally in the environment, but despite this, we now find some PFAS substances in many places in our surroundings, and even in human fetuses—in small concentrations that can still be measured. This has prompted both the scientific community and society at large to want to know more about (1) whether these levels of PFAS in our bodies are something to worry about, and (2) what sources primarily lead to our exposure.

As with so much else in our world, there are, or at least were, good reasons for wanting to use chemicals such as PFAS. Why? Because they are persistent, i.e. difficult to break down, which can be seen as a fantastic property in many products, says researcher Carolina Vogs, continuing:
... But that is also what makes these substances so difficult to deal with now that there are indications that they may be harmful to our bodies. They do not disappear “just like that”; once they are in the environment, it is very difficult to get rid of them.

 

From firefighting foam and Teflon frying pans to our drinking water

PFAS was initially introduced into our environment through products such as firefighting foam, Teflon frying pans, rainwear, and metal food cans—thanks to PFAS's water- and grease-repellent properties. When concerns about its harmfulness to the environment and health were discovered, attempts were made to identify its sources, investigate how serious this is, and, of course, try to get rid of it. However, some substances are challenging to both purify and replace.

Drinking water, for example. Vital to our survival and absolutely irreplaceable.

Historically, exposure to PFAS has mainly been through food, but now we are focusing more and more on drinking water, because as we gradually eliminate other sources of PFAS, the remaining ones become even more important to review. New thinking and more knowledge are needed to decide what measures should and can be taken, says researcher Carolina Vogs.

Risks associated with PFAS

According to the Swedish Society for Nature Conservation, studies have shown a link between exposure to the four most closely monitored PFAS substances and poorer vaccine responses in children, liver damage, elevated blood lipid levels, intestinal diseases, and thyroid disorders. However, we still know far too little about the effects of PFAS on the human body, not least because only a few PFAS substances have previously been studied in terms of exposure patterns and effects.

Carolina Vogs is now devoting her time to broadening and improving our knowledge in this area.

Photo of a water glass on a table, with a woman gesturing with her hands (Carolina Vogs, SLU) in the background.
The chemicals within the PFAS group that Carolina Vogs is focusing on investigating are called “PFAA” and are one of several subgroups of the PFAS family. Photo: Lisa Chröisty

Focus: PFAS in water & fish

Among the various ways in which humans can be exposed to PFAS chemicals, it is through food and water that we are considered to be most exposed. That is why Carolina Vogs is now focusing her PFAS research on water and the large food group that lives in it—fish.

At the concentrations at which PFAS are found in our environment today, we cannot see, smell, or feel these chemicals—yet they are everywhere, says the researcher, continuing:
It is also important to remember that PFAS exposure is one of many risk factors in our everyday lives today—along with factors such as lifestyle, diet, age, and other chemical exposures that can affect our health status.

 

Exposure to PFAS varies between individuals, depending on factors such as age and gender. There is currently no technology available that can purify tap water from PFAS in every home. Water producers are therefore responsible for providing clean and healthy drinking water, in accordance with drinking water guidelines. However, in order to know what these guidelines should be, i.e. how high levels of PFAS we can ingest without harming our bodies, knowledge is required. And the more research that is conducted on the subject, the more reliable the guidelines can be.

In order to determine how much PFAS drinking water can contain without being harmful to us, three major questions need to be answered:

  1. How much of our exposure to PFAS comes from the water we drink, and not from the food we eat or the textiles we wear?
  2. And how risky is it really for us humans to be exposed to the levels of PFAS contained in drinking water and fish?
I hope that my research can contribute, not least through the calculator we plan to develop, which will hopefully be used to simulate various future scenarios related to PFAS, says Carolina Vogs.

Developing a program that can calculate the risks for us

The plan is for Carolina Vogs' group to develop tools that can be used to both predict and assess risks associated with human exposure to PFAS. The research team has now received SEK 4 million to further develop the tools—and they have big plans for the future.

We hope to develop a kind of “calculator” that can simulate different scenarios involving PFAS. This will give us a probability of the risks involved, which can provide support for future decisions, risk assessments, and regulations, says researcher Carolina Vogs.

The model is intended to be based on a variety of data sources, such as previous studies on PFAS levels in drinking water and fish, data on how people of different ages and genders absorb and eliminate these chemicals.

This will provide us with guidelines on what measures are needed to get below safe levels of PFAS, and how extensive these measures need to be, says the researcher.

“It's always better to know”

I simply believe that knowledge is always better than uncertainty, says Carolina Vogs, taking a sip from the glass of water in front of her.

She now has four years ahead of her in a research project that is both controversial and complex.

We are already certain that the few PFAS substances studied are dangerous to humans in high concentrations, but we are not sure how they affect us in low doses, which can now be measured in most humans, animals, and nature.

... And we can't do anything about what we don't know anything about, she concludes.
Photo of a person filling a glass of water from a tap indoors in a kitchen.
The issue of clean drinking water affects us all – across the entire planet. More on the issue of PFAS to follow. Photo: Lisa Chröisty

Facts about this project:

  • The research project is funded by the national research council Formas by SEK 3,997,000.
  • Launched in autumn 2024 and expected to run until the end of 2028.
  • Is being led by Carolina Vogs, researcher in toxicology at the Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences (SLU), together with a research group consisting of:
    • Anders Glynn, researcher and professor of toxicology at SLU.
    • Gunnar Johanson, researcher and professor of integrative toxicology at Karolinska Institutet, KI.
    • Irina Gyllenhammar from the Swedish Food Agency.
    • and doctoral student Emelie Lindfeldt, at SLU.

 

The project is divided into two stages, which can be described very simply as follows:

  1. Create a model of the processes, sources, and parameters that can link exposure to PFAS in water and fish to the level that can be measured through blood tests from people of different ages and genders. This also includes increasing understanding of how PFAS behaves and affects different parts of the human body, as well as broadening knowledge about more PFAS variants than the four most studied variants today, as the effects of the different chemicals can vary. 

  2. Once the model is sufficiently complete in the first stage and calibrated in a functional manner, the hope is to apply it to determine the extent to which drinking water actually affects the concentration of PFAS in the human body, according to the effect level associated with a reduced antibody response. This tool could be useful in a number of different areas, not least in determining the maximum level of PFAS in drinking water and fish that is considered tolerable for each consumer, regardless of age and gender, based on current knowledge.

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