
PFAS Risk Calculator: For simulating and assessing the risk of chemicals in food and drinking water
PFAS: The chemical group that so many are talking about, found in food, drinking water, and accumulated in our bodies. How serious is it really that we are ingesting these chemicals? This is what Carolina Vogs is now investigating - and aiming to developing a program that calculates the risk for us.
And the question that naturally follows is: Are the levels of PFAS in our bodies something to worry about? How does it affect our bodies? And what can actually be done about it when these chemicals, albeit in low levels, have already spread to both food and drinking water?
Let's start from the beginning.
What exactly is PFAS?
PFAS, short for “per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances”: A large group of artificial, so-called “synthetic” chemicals created by humans. PFAS do not occur naturally in the environment, but despite this, we now find some PFAS substances in many places in our surroundings, and even in human fetuses—in small concentrations that can still be measured. This has prompted both the scientific community and society at large to want to know more about (1) whether these levels of PFAS in our bodies are something to worry about, and (2) what sources primarily lead to our exposure.
From firefighting foam and Teflon frying pans to our drinking water
PFAS was initially introduced into our environment through products such as firefighting foam, Teflon frying pans, rainwear, and metal food cans—thanks to PFAS's water- and grease-repellent properties. When concerns about its harmfulness to the environment and health were discovered, attempts were made to identify its sources, investigate how serious this is, and, of course, try to get rid of it. However, some substances are challenging to both purify and replace.
Drinking water, for example. Vital to our survival and absolutely irreplaceable.
Risks associated with PFAS
According to the Swedish Society for Nature Conservation, studies have shown a link between exposure to the four most closely monitored PFAS substances and poorer vaccine responses in children, liver damage, elevated blood lipid levels, intestinal diseases, and thyroid disorders. However, we still know far too little about the effects of PFAS on the human body, not least because only a few PFAS substances have previously been studied in terms of exposure patterns and effects.
Carolina Vogs is now devoting her time to broadening and improving our knowledge in this area.

Focus: PFAS in water & fish
Among the various ways in which humans can be exposed to PFAS chemicals, it is through food and water that we are considered to be most exposed. That is why Carolina Vogs is now focusing her PFAS research on water and the large food group that lives in it—fish.
Exposure to PFAS varies between individuals, depending on factors such as age and gender. There is currently no technology available that can purify tap water from PFAS in every home. Water producers are therefore responsible for providing clean and healthy drinking water, in accordance with drinking water guidelines. However, in order to know what these guidelines should be, i.e. how high levels of PFAS we can ingest without harming our bodies, knowledge is required. And the more research that is conducted on the subject, the more reliable the guidelines can be.
In order to determine how much PFAS drinking water can contain without being harmful to us, three major questions need to be answered:
- How much of our exposure to PFAS comes from the water we drink, and not from the food we eat or the textiles we wear?
- And how risky is it really for us humans to be exposed to the levels of PFAS contained in drinking water and fish?
Developing a program that can calculate the risks for us
The plan is for Carolina Vogs' group to develop tools that can be used to both predict and assess risks associated with human exposure to PFAS. The research team has now received SEK 4 million to further develop the tools—and they have big plans for the future.
The model is intended to be based on a variety of data sources, such as previous studies on PFAS levels in drinking water and fish, data on how people of different ages and genders absorb and eliminate these chemicals.
“It's always better to know”
She now has four years ahead of her in a research project that is both controversial and complex.
We are already certain that the few PFAS substances studied are dangerous to humans in high concentrations, but we are not sure how they affect us in low doses, which can now be measured in most humans, animals, and nature.

Facts about this project:
- The research project is funded by the national research council Formas by SEK 3,997,000.
- Launched in autumn 2024 and expected to run until the end of 2028.
- Is being led by Carolina Vogs, researcher in toxicology at the Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences (SLU), together with a research group consisting of:
- Anders Glynn, researcher and professor of toxicology at SLU.
- Gunnar Johanson, researcher and professor of integrative toxicology at Karolinska Institutet, KI.
- Irina Gyllenhammar from the Swedish Food Agency.
- and doctoral student Emelie Lindfeldt, at SLU.
The project is divided into two stages, which can be described very simply as follows:
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Create a model of the processes, sources, and parameters that can link exposure to PFAS in water and fish to the level that can be measured through blood tests from people of different ages and genders. This also includes increasing understanding of how PFAS behaves and affects different parts of the human body, as well as broadening knowledge about more PFAS variants than the four most studied variants today, as the effects of the different chemicals can vary.
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Once the model is sufficiently complete in the first stage and calibrated in a functional manner, the hope is to apply it to determine the extent to which drinking water actually affects the concentration of PFAS in the human body, according to the effect level associated with a reduced antibody response. This tool could be useful in a number of different areas, not least in determining the maximum level of PFAS in drinking water and fish that is considered tolerable for each consumer, regardless of age and gender, based on current knowledge.
Contact
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PersonCarolina Vogs, ResearcherHBIO, Pharmacology, Toxicology and Parasitology