Storm Economics – Investing in Preparedness Before the Next Disaster Strikes

In January 2005, Gudrun brought down nearly 75 million cubic meters of timber, causing losses of around 2.4 billion euros — and years of market instability.

At SLU, researcher Narayanan Subramanian studies how Sweden’s forests can become more resilient in a changing climate — and how preparedness and economics must go hand in hand.

Modeling the Future Forest

Narayanan’s research uses simulation models and Decision Support Systems (DSS) to test how different management choices perform under future climate conditions.
By integrating ecological, climatic, and economic data, these tools help forest owners, planners, and policymakers see how today’s decisions shape tomorrow’s risks.

“Forestry is long-term — what we plant now will face the climate of 2100,” he explains.
“Our models help identify which adaptation strategies reduce storm damage most effectively, while still being economically viable.”

The Heureka DSS, developed in Sweden, can compare different management strategies — from thinning and harvesting cycles to mixed-species planting — to calculate both risk reduction and profitability.
This makes it a key tool for turning science into actionable preparedness.

The Economic Dimension

For Narayanan, adaptation isn’t just a scientific or ecological issue — it’s an economic necessity.
“Even the best adaptation strategies will fail if they’re too expensive or impractical,” he says. “Preparedness has to make financial sense.”

Sweden’s forestry sector is built on long-term investment: trees planted today will be harvested 70 to 100 years from now. That means decisions made now must account for both future risks and financial sustainability.

By integrating economic models into systems like Heureka, researchers can calculate the net value of different management options — balancing costs, risks, and long-term returns. For example:

• Avoiding thinning practices can significantly reduce storm vulnerability with minimal cost.
• Planting more storm-resistant species or diversifying stands may require higher upfront investment — but pays off by lowering future losses.

“The lesson from storms like Gudrun is clear,” Narayanan says. “Not adapting costs far more than adapting. The economic and ecological losses from one major storm can outweigh decades of proactive management.”

He stresses that adaptation must also be scalable — practical for both large forest companies and small private landowners. “We need to ensure that cost-effective solutions aren’t just known, but actually reachable for those who manage most of Sweden’s forests.”

This economic framing, he argues, turns preparedness from a burden into an investment in resilience — one that safeguards both the environment and the forest economy that underpins rural communities.

Looking Ahead

For Narayanan, one message stands above all:

“We must start adapting now, not later. Forests grow slowly, and the decisions we make today will shape their strength for the next century.”

He envisions a future where science-based, cost-aware adaptation becomes a cornerstone of Sweden’s preparedness strategy — ensuring that its forests, industries, and communities can thrive in a stormier, more uncertain world.