From ecological data to management decisions: using Bayesian models in carnivore research

A large part of my research focuses on large carnivores, often in situations where ecological uncertainty meets very practical management decisions. In many cases, managers are not primarily asking whether an effect is “significant” or not – they want to know the probability that a management action will lead to a certain outcome. In wildlife management, decisions often need to be made despite substantial uncertainty and incomplete information. Bayesian approaches provide a useful framework for combining ecological data with management goals, and for presenting results in ways that are relevant for practical decision-making. 

In this seminar I will talk about how I use Bayesian models to translate ecological data into directly interpretable probabilities that can be used in both research and wildlife management. I will show examples from work ranging from applied wildlife management to broader ecological questions. Bayesian approaches have helped us develop practical decision-support tools for management authorities, while also improving our understanding of ecological processes. One thing I am particularly interested in is how probabilistic thinking can help bridge the gap between ecological research and applied management of large carnivores.

This seminar is a part of an online seminar series about Baysian data analysis, given by the SLU Center of Statistics. The full program for the seminar series can be seen here.

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Mohammad Ghorbani