Theory of Change methodology

Page reviewed: 20/11/2025

What is Theory of Change?

Theory of Change (ToC) is a conceptual framework that describes how and why a project or intervention is expected to lead to desired results. It is an innovative methodology, offering flexibility, reflective learning, and effective follow-up. This approach ensures that the project remains adaptable and responsive to changing circumstances. By creating impact pathways, the ToC approach ensures continuous evaluation of project strategies while systematically mapping and reporting significant attributable changes.

The approach forces project planners to think about how change happens and what results are required at each stage of the change process to achieve the stated objectives. In other words, it outlines the cause-and-effect relationship between inputs, activities, outputs, outcomes and impact.

How does AgriFoSe2030 work with Theory of Change?

AgriFoSe2030 operates at three interconnected levels namely programme level; hub level comprising networks of universities in Kenya, Uganda and Zimbabwe; and project level where science translation initiatives provide practical research to impact evidence. Accordingly, the programme utilizes a multilayered and nested ToC approach where programme level ToC is linked to hub ToC’s and finally to project level ToC’s ensuring alignment between the three levels of the programme.

ToC development integrates process visualization and actor mapping through applying multiple frameworks including rich pictures, stakeholder analysis, and impact pathways.

What is MEL?

The Monitoring, Evaluation, and Learning (MEL) strategy provides hubs and projects with a structured approach to following up on the ToC process. The programme deploys multiple MEL tools to track impact, including most significant change, key meeting trackers, after-action reviews, change stories, outcome harvesting, and progress-tracking rubrics. These tools help the programme systematically document and monitor how activities, outputs, and outcomes progress along the ToC, reflect on underlying assumptions, and, in the long term, demonstrate how the work contributes to bridging science, policy, and practice.