Adapting Scots pine breeding populations to climate change
Project overview
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Short summary
Climate change is one of the major environmental challenges of our time and Sweden is already experiencing warmer summers. This project examines whether Scots pine used in forestry are adapted to future climates and how genetic knowledge can guide decisions about which trees should be planted where.
Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) is one of the most important tree species in Swedish forestry, and different genetic groups are adapted to the climatic conditions in which they evolved.
The current system of Swedish seed and breeding zones, which determines which seed sources are recommended for planting in different parts of the country, is largely based on the assumption that breeding populations are adapted to the historical climate of their regions. However, as the climate changes, this assumption may no longer hold. This raises the question of whether Scots pine used in forestry today will remain well adapted to future climate conditions.
This PhD project aims to identify genetic regions in the Scots pine genome that are associated with climate adaptation and to model how these relationships may change under future climate scenarios.
Using modern genomic methods, it is now possible to identify genetic variation linked to adaptation to environmental conditions. The project analyses how genetic variation in Scots pine is related to both environmental factors and observable tree traits.
By combining data from long-term provenance trials, where trees from different geographic origins have been planted and compared, with new genomic analyses, the research investigates how genetic variation is associated with different climatic conditions. This approach may also help define seed and breeding zones without relying entirely on long-term field testing.
The results may support the development of updated zone delineations and allow comparison with the current system, which is mainly based on observed tree traits or climate data.
In this way, the project can contribute to reducing the risks that climate change poses to future forest regeneration and tree breeding in Sweden.
Research team
PhD student: Jemal Mohammed Abdela
Main supervisor: Harry Wu, Department of Forest Genetics and Plant Physiology
Assistant supervisors:
Henrik Hallingbäck, Skogforsk
Rosario Garcia Gil, Department of Forest Genetics and Plant Physiology
Ola Kårén, SCA
Collaborating partner: SCA
Project period: May 2025 to April 2030
This project is part of WIFORCE – the Wallenberg Initiative in Forest Research, funded by the Knut and Alice Wallenberg Foundation.