Marine extreme weather: ecological effects and risks to fisheries
KEY POINTS- Studies on the impact of extreme weather on marine ecosystems
- Development of risk analysis for swedish fisheries
- Integration of ecological and economic analyses in decision support
Project overview
Participants
More related research
Short summary
Heatwaves in the sea can affect fish and other organisms, while extreme storms can reduce fishing opportunities. Extreme weather events like these are becoming increasingly common due to climate change. Therefore, between 2024 and 2026, we will study the effect of heatwaves on fish and food webs using models and experiments.
Together with representatives for Swedish fisheries, management agencies and stakeholders we are also developing the first joint risk analyses of climate changes for Swedish fisheries. The risk analysis is a prerequisite for future climate adaptation of Swedish fisheries, supporting fishing businesses and fisheries management.
Our goal with the project
Our goal is to increase the understanding of the integrated risks that extreme marine weather events pose to fisheries, and develop a food web based risk analysis together with representatives for Swedish fisheries and management authorities.
We do this to support the development of measures to adapt fisheries management to reduce the effects of extreme weather, mitigate the risks and at the same time increase the resilience of exploited Baltic Sea ecosystems and Swedish fisheries.
News in the project
Risks to Swedish fisheries posed by extreme weather is being analysed!
The joint development with representatives for Swedish fisheries, management agencies and stakeholders is started at a workshop at SLU in November 2024, and continues with interviews and model development during spring 2025.
What do we do in the project?
We combine different methods for ecological and economic analyses to develop risk analyses and decision support. This includes analysing extreme weather from data on sea temperature and wind conditions. We also test the effect of heatwaves on fish and their prey in mesocosm experiments, and develop a temperature-dependent model of herring populations. We use the model to study how heat waves during different parts of the year affect herring dynamics and fisheries catches.
Together with representatives for commercial fisheries organisations, recreational fisheries and stakeholders in the archipelago, as well as county boards and the Swedish agency for marine and water management, we develop a risk analysis of how Swedish fisheries and their stakeholders are affected by extreme weather. Using an economic fisheries policy model, we also analyse how extreme weather affect catch opportunities and costs in different fleet segments of the Swedish commercial fisheries.
We combine the ecological and economic consequences and risks to fisheries in a decision support model, in which the effects of different decisions can be evaluated. The long-term aim is to continue to develop this model together with responsible agencies into a future decision support for climate adaption of Swedish fisheries and fisheries management.
Facts about the project
- Funded by FORMAS called Extreme weather: effects, measures and solutions for a long-term sustainable and resilient society (Project number FORMAS 2023-02536)
- Led by Anna Gårdmark, Department of Aquatic Resources at SLU, with project members Magnus Huss, Jens Olsson, Staffan Waldo, Laura Uusitalo, Valerio Bartolino, Jasper Croll, Torbjörn Jansson and Ingrid Bergman. Read more about our researchers and members below!
- The project is a collaboration between the Department of Aquatic Resources (SLU), AgriFood SLU and SYKE Finland
- The organisations contributing to the development of the new joint Climate Risk Analysis are Sveriges Fiskares Producentorganisation, Swedish Pelagic Federation, Sveriges organiserade fiskeguider, Sportfiskarna, Skärgårdarnas Riksförbund, the County Administrative Boards, the Swedish Board of Agriculture and the Swedish Agency for Marine and Water Management.
We are the researchers in the project
Anna Gårdmark, Professor
Anna Gårdmark (SLU) leads the project and the modelling of extreme weather effects on food webs, and contributes to the development of the risk analysis and decision support model.
Magnus Huss, Associate Professor
Magnus Huss (SLU) leads the heat wave experiment and contributes to the food web modelling.
Jens Olsson, Researcher
Jens Olsson (SLU) leads the co-creation of the risk analysis for Swedish fisheries and contributes to the development of the decision support model.
Staffan Waldo, Associate professor
Staffan Waldo (AgriFood) leads the bioeconomic analyses of Swedish fisheries.
Laura Uusitalo, Professor
Laura Uusitalo (Finnish Environment Institute) leads the development of the decision support model and contributes to the risk analysis.
Valerio Bartolino, Researcher
Valerio Bartolino (SLU) contributes to the development of the decision support model and dialogue on future decision support.
Jasper Croll, Postdoctor
Jasper Croll (SLU) simulates and analyzes extreme weather effects on herring, their prey and fisheries catches.
Torbjörn Jansson, Associate professor
Torbjörn Jansson (AgriFood) contributes to the bioeconomic analyses of climate effects on Swedish fisheries.
Ingrid Bergman, Research assistant
Ingrid Bergman (SLU) assists the heatwave experiments on fish and their prey.