Calibrating a vegetation model for Scandinavia
An established model (PROPS) using soil chemistry, N deposition and climate to predict plant species probability of occurrence needs recalibrating to fit Swedish conditions.
While the PROPS model (Wamelink et al. 2020, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envpol.2020.115257) is an established tool for predicting plant species occurrence from soil chemistry, nitrogen deposition and climate across Europe, and is used in the ICP Integrated Monitoring programme to translate acidification scenarios into habitat suitability, its nitrogen responses were fitted on monitoring plots mostly outside Scandinavia and receiving higher deposition.
At Swedish forest sites most species are at the edge of its modelled range, and their predicted responses could be improved. Currently, some forest habitats show declining habitat suitability index with declining N deposition, which is likely an artifact of the model. The Swedish National Forest Inventory and Forest Soil Inventory hold vegetation, measured soil pH and C:N on thousands of permanent plots would allow a Nordic correction to PROPS’s responses to be fitted and tested. The project would suit a student with an interest in plant ecology and some confidence in R or Python; the design and the scope can be discussed.
Level: master, 30 ECTS / 20 weeks
Ecology, Modelling
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